Bank Analyst Predicts Temporary Pullback

Bitcoin could dip below $100,000 by the weekend before resuming its uptrend, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research. He described any drop as likely to be short-lived and possibly the last sub-$100,000 level “ever.”Bitcoin was trading around $108,200 on Thursday, down roughly 4% in the past 24 hours, after peaking above $126,000 on Oct. 6. Kendrick linked the retreat to renewed U.S.–China trade tensions that sparked a broad selloff on Oct. 10. “A dip below $100,000 seems inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived,” he wrote.Kendrick, who correctly forecast bitcoin’s break above $100,000 earlier this year, said he views the move as part of a technical reset. He continues to hold a year-end target of $200,000 and a longer-term projection of $500,000 by 2028.

Investor Takeaway

Standard Chartered expects bitcoin’s pullback to be brief, viewing sub-$100K levels as a potential long-term entry point before a renewed advance.

Gold-to-Bitcoin Flows Offer Key Clues

Kendrick highlighted gold-to-bitcoin rotation flows as an indicator for market stabilization. He said a sharp selloff in gold earlier this week coincided with an intraday bitcoin rebound — a pattern he described as “sell gold, buy bitcoin.” Such moves, he added, could become more frequent and help form a price floor for the cryptocurrency.

Analysts say the correlation between gold and bitcoin has tightened in 2025 as investors use both assets to hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty. The parallel movement suggests that traders are increasingly treating bitcoin as a high-beta alternative to bullion.

Liquidity Conditions Under Scrutiny

Kendrick also pointed to liquidity tightening as a factor in recent volatility. “The question for me is when does the Fed see them as ‘tight’ and react by either acknowledging said measures or stopping QT,” he wrote, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program. A potential policy pause could support risk assets including bitcoin, he added.

Some traders see liquidity metrics as more relevant for bitcoin’s trajectory than rate policy itself, noting that bitcoin often rebounds ahead of equity markets once conditions begin to ease. Data from The Block shows trading volumes across major crypto exchanges remain above $80 billion daily, even amid this week’s declines.

Investor Takeaway

Analysts are watching liquidity signals closely. A Fed pivot or slowdown in tightening could provide the catalyst for bitcoin’s next move higher.

Technical Levels and Outlook

Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average has acted as support since early 2023, when the token traded near $25,000. Kendrick said that despite short-term weakness, the long-term structure remains intact. “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base,” he wrote.

He urged investors to “stay nimble and ready to buy the dip below $100,000 if it comes,” adding that it may be the final chance to accumulate before another leg higher. “This may be the last time bitcoin is ever below that level,” he said.

As of Thursday afternoon, bitcoin was holding just above the $108,000 mark. For traders, the weekend could prove pivotal — whether it confirms Kendrick’s forecast or triggers a broader shift in sentiment across digital assets.