Will Bitcoin bulls defend the $100K psychological level? Check forecast

Bitcoin is having a poor start to the week as it extends its correction today, temporarily slipping below $104k.

Long-term holders continue to offload their holdings, strengthening the current bearish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

BTC temporarily slips below $104k as spot Bitcoin ETFs record outflows 

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, has lost nearly 3% of its value in the last 24 hours and temporarily dropped below $104k earlier today.

It has slightly rebounded and is now trading above $104,300 per coin.

The bearish performance comes as long-term holders reduce their exposure to Bitcoin while spot Bitcoin ETFs record huge outflows. 

Data obtained from Lookonchain revealed that Owen Gunden deposited another 1,289 BTC to Kraken earlier today.

Another Bitcoin whale has transferred 13,000 BTC to major exchanges, including Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid, since October 1. 

The trend of Bitcoin whales sending Bitcoins to exchanges indicates profit-taking, increasing selling pressure on the leading cryptocurrency. 

79 Reply Copy link Analysts pointed out that the ongoing selloff comes with no clear macro catalyst, as stocks and other risk-based assets are outperforming Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 

Bitcoin whales have sold over 450k bitcoins over the past 30 days, and Bitcoin has maintained its price above $100k, with analysts viewing this as a sign of resilience. 

In addition to whales reducing their exposure to Bitcoin, institutional demand continues to weaken.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $186.51 million on Monday, marking their fourth consecutive day of outflow.

If the outflows continue and intensify, Bitcoin’s price could face further correction and likely dip below the $100k for the first time since June 22. 

According to CryptoQuant, investor demand in the Bitcoin futures market has also been declining.

The Bitcoin CME’s Futures annualised basis has declined to 1.98%, the lowest level in more than two years.

This suggests that demand to hold Bitcoin futures with 6-month or longer expiries is lower than in recent months. 

Bitcoin could retest the $102k swing low

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart hasn’t changed its trend in recent weeks as it remains bearish and efficient.

The leading cryptocurrency faced rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $115,137 last week and has lost nearly 9% of its value since then. 

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $104,300, with the price action extremely bearish.

The RSI of 38 shows a selling pressure, with the MACD lines also suggesting further bearish bias. 

If the daily candle closes below the $106,453 support level, Bitcoin could extend its decline towards the October 10 swing low of $102,000.

However, if the bullish trend resumes and Bitcoin’s daily candle closes above $106k, it could extend its recovery towards the nearest resistance level at $112,152.  

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