MongoDB has had the kind of year that tests investor conviction, patience, and all sorts of psychological barriers. The stock is down 20% year-to-date according to Yahoo Finance. That’s a painful stretch for a company that returned 77% over the past twelve months and sits at the center of enterprise AI database infrastructure. The market has been sending a message of doubt, and Bank of America just sent one back.

BofA Securities raised its price target on MongoDB (MDB) in a note shared with TheStreet, maintaining its Buy rating a few days before MongoDB’s May 28 first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report. At $334.68, that $375 target implies roughly 12% upside – modest in isolation, but significant given the cloud of near-term uncertainty hanging over the stock since the company’s go-to-market leadership shakeup earlier this year.

Analyst Koji Ikeda, who ranks 857 out of 12,237 Wall Street analysts, was direct in the note: BofA has detected no slowdown in MongoDB demand and does not expect the upcoming results to change its bullish view.

BofA raises MongoDB stock price target to $375 from $350

Despite short-term growth concerns, BofA raised the price target from $350 to $375. That reflects the same valuation framework BofA applied to Snowflake as mentioned in my previous coverage – a multiple expansion driven by higher execution confidence, not revised financial estimates. The firm raised its enterprise value to the calendar year 2027 estimated revenue multiple to 8.9 times from 8.3 times previously, according to the note. Forecasts were kept unchanged.

The confidence call is notable given the backdrop. MongoDB’s Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance, issued alongside the Q4 fiscal 2026 results in March, landed in line to slightly below consensus, signaling a deceleration in Atlas cloud growth that rattled the market. 

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More Tech Stocks: The simultaneous departure of the Chief Revenue Officer and President of Field Operations added to investor concern about near-term sales execution. That combination of guidance, caution, and leadership transition is what drove the 20% year-to-date decline.

BofA’s read is that the concern is temporary and the underlying demand environment has not deteriorated. According to Investing.com, Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital have both independently raised their price targets to $360, citing growth in the Atlas platform and AI workload potential as the primary drivers.

MongoDB’s fiscal Q4 2026 results showed the platform executing at a high level

Before the guidance noise of Q1 fiscal 2027, MongoDB’s most recent completed quarter told a story of genuine business momentum:

  • Q4 fiscal 2026 total revenue of $695.1 million, up 27% year over year
  • Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue of $2.46 billion, up 23% year over year
  • Atlas revenue up 29% year over year in both Q4 and the full year
  • 2,700 customers added in Q4, bringing total to over 65,200
  • Rule of 40 performance achieved – combining revenue growth and operating margin Source: MongoDB, Inc. Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results

CEO CJ Desai framed the competitive positioning directly on the earnings call. “Whether it’s AI and digital natives looking for a highly performant solution, a large enterprise looking for multi-cloud resiliency, or a customer seeking an integrated offering for AI agents, … customers are excited about the strength of the MongoDB platform,” Desai said.

The AWS Global Technology Partner of the Year recognition, awarded during the quarter, signals the depth of MongoDB’s integration with Amazon Bedrock, SageMaker, and Amazon Q – the AI services that enterprise customers are deploying at scale.

If MongoDB beats the revenue midpoint and provides Q2 guidance that signals reacceleration, the stock’s 20% year-to-date decline looks like an overreaction.

What May 28 needs to show for BofA’s $375 target to hold

LightRocket via Getty Images The Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance Snowflake delivered, and that MongoDB guided, sets a specific bar for May 28, according to the company’s previously issued outlook:

  • Revenue expected between $659 million and $664 million, with a midpoint of $661.5 million
  • Non-GAAP operating income of $105 million to $109 million
  • Non-GAAP EPS of $1.15 to $1.19 Source: MongoDB, Inc. Q1 Fiscal 2027 Guidance

My review of where BofA’s confidence diverges from market skepticism comes down to one question: Is the Atlas deceleration a structural shift or a temporary disruption caused by leadership transition?

If MongoDB beats the revenue midpoint and provides Q2 guidance that signals reacceleration, the stock’s 20% year-to-date decline looks like an overreaction. If Atlas growth continues to slow, the guidance reset was a preview of something more persistent.

Related: MongoDB just got a reality check from Wall Street

MongoDB’s recent product launches reinforce the AI infrastructure narrative ahead of the print. The Voyage AI integration – creating a unified data intelligence layer with reduced hallucination risk – and the new Automated Embedding for Community Vector Search are positioning MongoDB as the operational database of record for production AI agents.

Its MongoDB for Startups members now represent more than $200 billion in aggregate valuation, building a pipeline of AI-native customers who will scale their database spend as their businesses grow. BofA is betting that the product is strong enough and the demand environment is intact enough that May 28 resolves the leadership transition question in the company’s favor.

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