The recent drop in Bitcoin prices, which sent them below $100,000 for the first time since June, has caused considerable concern among ordinary investors. Hougan says that retail attitude is “more depressed than I’ve ever seen it.” 

There are a lot of liquidations, high-leverage transactions are unwinding, and the overall atmosphere is like the worst times of past crypto winters. Many individual investors have hit the panic button and sold off their assets as the price drops, leaving a trail of losses and doubt behind.​

Hougan thinks that this environment of high retail panic and forced selling can potentially set the stage for a quick rebound. He says that retail investors are almost done leaving because of their distress, and he calls this moment a possible bottom indication and an important step before any real rebound.​

Institutions Hold Strong in Uncertain Times

Institutional investors are staying calm, which is very different from the upheaval in retail. Despite the price drop and bad mood in the retail market, Hougan says that demand from financial planners and big Wall Street institutions is still strong.

Hougan said in a recent interview, “When I talk to institutions or financial advisors, they’re still excited to invest in an asset class that has given very strong returns over the course of a year.”​

Not only are institutions mostly unaffected, but they are also actively boosting their organic holdings. New money coming into spot Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional-grade crypto products shows that big investors still see Bitcoin as a long-term investment, not a short-term bet.

Hougan says this is because institutions are more stable and disciplined when it comes to risk than retail traders, who tend to respond more quickly.​

The Tipping Point: Is the Market About to Turn Around?

Hougan says that the clearing out of retail investors could soon be over, which would take away a lot of the selling pressure on the market. He thinks that once sellers give up and fear fades, buyer interest—especially from institutions that are waiting on the sidelines—will take over, which might lead to a quick price rise. 

Hougan even discusses bold predictions from individuals in the sector, including Michael Saylor, who suggests that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 to $150,000 this year if the market evolves as he anticipates.​ Bitcoin’s value has dropped sharply, losing more than 12% in the past week and underperforming traditional equity benchmarks. 

However, Hougan says that the disciplined participation of big investors will help protect against a longer-term crypto winter. He thinks that “we are closer to the end than the beginning” of this cycle, but there could be some downside volatility.

For those who are weathering the current storm, Hougan’s appraisal gives them a reason to be cautiously hopeful. Retail traders who have been hurt may see an opportunity in the expected turning point, while institutions are poised to take advantage if prices stabilize and the mood improves.

As the crypto market matures, institutional capital and discipline are becoming increasingly crucial for guiding its direction through tough times, which is what Hougan’s position supports.​