Always remember this about the oil industry. It is a long-term business. Finding oil and actually getting it to market today takes years from initial finding.

So, unless the bet on a big prospect is a complete bust, give it some time.

Also, a drop in oil prices is often immaterial, unless Saudi Arabia is flooding global oil markets to punish other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that are flagrantly violating production quotas.

Remember: Oil and natural gas are the world’s most political commodities, as people have learned since the 1970s, followed by wheat and, maybe, sugar

So, crude oil fell on Tuesday as Iran reported progress in talks about its nuclear program with the United States. That reduced immediate fears of an immediate U.S. military attack on Iranian nuclear and military locations.

Why Chevron won an upgrade

But Chevron got an upgrade anyway from Melius Research, a New York investment house. Melius rated the stock a buy and pushed its Chevron stock target price to $205. That’s a 13.5% increase from the Feb. 17 closing price of $180.55, and off 0.8% for the day. The target is tops among Wall Street sell-side analysts.

Chevron shares already are up 18.5% on the year, a function of higher oil prices. Light sweet crude, or West Texas Intermediate, is up 2.4% in 2026, finishing at $62.33 a barrel on Feb. 17. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is up about 10.8.% at $57.42.

Those prices are down substantially — as much as 30% — from speculative peaks reached in the summer of 2022, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Related: Big Oil supermajor stuns with blunt Venezuela message

What Melius analyst James West cited in his report about Chevron were four factors:

  • A recent reshuffle in Chevron’s management to prioritize younger company-developed leaders. The goal is to position the oil giant for its next growth phase. And the moves demonstrate a more aggressive approach to talent acquisition.
  • Digestion and integration of assets in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, acquired in Chevron’s $55 billion merger with Hess Corp in Summer 2025.
  • New opportunities in Libya and Iraq. Plus, Chevron is exploring new shale prospects in Argentina. On Feb. 16, the company signed a lease agreement with Greece to be able to explore four areas south of the island of Crete and south of the Peloponnese Peninsula. The company is also expanding production from its Leviathan platform off the coast of Israel.
  • Lastly, Chevron is the only major U.S. company with operations in Venezuela. Its refinery produces 250,000 barrels of oil a day now, with production expected to double by 2030. The assumption is Venezuela will see greater exploitation of its huge reserves with a new governmental regime after the U.S. arrest of then-President of Nicolas Maduro on drug-trafficking charges.

So, if you’re investing in Chevron, you’re making (probably) a long-term bet that requires patience. The same holds for any energy company. Investment analysts Zacks would not argue with you if you now have big gains in the shares this year and want to cash out.

Chevron is a global oil giant. The supermajor is ramping production, particularly in Venezuela.

To pay off in the long run, Chevron, Exxon, and others are investing massively in computer power and, now, artificial intelligence to fine-tune their exploration activities.

Decent prospects nowadays are often 7,000 feet or more more before the earth’s surface. Chevron’s Jack/St. Malo field in the Gulf of Mexico, first discovered in 2003, is as much as 7,000 feet beneath the Gulf’s surface.

The Permian Basin, the biggest U.S. producing region, has produced oil from 5,000 feet to 25,000 feet below the surface.

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More Oil and Gas: Global demand is going to rise, especially since electric vehicle production has been staggered by consumer prices unwilling to pay the market prices. And, in the United States, tax breaks for electric vehicles were ended in the 2025 tax bill.

Energy leads the S&P 500

Energy stocks have attracted investor interest this year, as Barrons noted, by their relative stability compared with risky tech bets like software.

Year-to-date, the Standard & Poor’s 500 energy sector has gained nearly 20%, tops among the 11 sectors in the index.

Technology overall is down 4.5%, weighed down by softness in some of the giants, including Microsoft (down 17.9%), Salesforce (down 30.4%), and even Nvidia (down nearly 1%). Nvidia reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25.

The weakest sector is consumer discretionary stocks, dragged down by stress in such stocks as Tesla, Amazon.com, and Booking Holdings.

Related: Valero targets billion-dollar Venezuela oil windfall